National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research

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NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health, Research & Care

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Health Protection

NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infections

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The research aims to answer the following research question:

Can we extend and build on the IMPACTsec model to evaluate and predict the effects of past and future environmental and health care interventions, in order to inform local priority-setting and evidence-based commissioning?

Why has this research been developed?

Coronary heart disease (CHD) represents the biggest single cause of death in the UK. CHD is currently the biggest contributor to inequalities in premature deaths. With colleagues from University College London, we have developed & validated the IMPACT sec Policy Model . This can examine English mortality trends by quintile of socio-economic circumstance (SEC), and quantify contributions from specific risk factors & treatments.

Using CHD as a case-study, the Modelling Project will:

  • Identify, characterise and interpret published data on the effectiveness and differential socio-economic impact of environmental interventions on CHD prevention;
  • Identify and access relevant data describing socio demographic trends in population CHD risk factors & effectiveness and differential impact of CHD therapies.

How is the research being carried out?

The methods we are using are:

  • Systematic literature reviews and scoping reviews of policies on tobacco control, diet and inactivity;
  • Consulting topic experts;
  • Modelling the impact of past and future environmental and health care interventions.

What will the research provide?

After scoping a variety of simulation methodologies, we will quantify contributions of past and future interventions to changing risk-factors for CHD, stratified by socio-economic quintiles.

The precision and uncertainties associated with past estimates and future projections will be quantified.

Evidence-based recommendations to public health and care commissioners with regard to priority-setting, evidence-based commissioning & addressing inequalities.

Further information

Simon Capewell